What will the next Commission look like?


Breaking with past traditions, the Lisbon Treaty stipulates that the new European Parliament will choose the new Commission President. With the new European Commission installed in November 2014, Ecommerce Europe scans the horizon and looks ahead of possible candidates for positions in the future European Commission. Here are the latest results:

France: Pierre Moscovici, former finance minister, is a possible candidate to replace Michel Barnier, the current Commissioner of the Internal Market.

Romania: Dacian Cioloș, current Agricultural Commissioner, might be reappointed for another term.

Latvia: The former Prime Minister Caldis Dombrovskis is likely to replace Andris Piebalgs as Development Commissioner.

Estonia: Siim Kallas, current Commissioner for Transport, could be replaced by former Prime Minister Andrus Ansip.

The Netherlands: Neelie Kroes, current Vice-President and Commissioner for the Digital Agenda, could be replaced by Frans Timmermans, current Dutch minister of foreign affairs.

Greece: María Damanaki, current Commissioner of Maritime Affairs is likely to be replaced by Dora Bakoyannis, the former foreign minister of Greece.

Italy: DG Enterprise’s Antonio Tajani has decided to run for the European Parliament and is therefore not anymore in the running for Commissioner. Possible successors are the recently ousted Prime Minister, Enrico Letta or would it be Massimo D’Alema, a former Vice-President of the Italian Council?

Spain: Joaquín Almunia, current Competition Commissioner could be replaced by Miguel Arias Cañete, the current Spanish minister for Agriculture.

Hungary: Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs László Andor is not expected to be reappointed. Tibor Navracsics, Hungarian Minister for Public Administration and Justice, is seen as a favorite.

United Kingdom: Catherine Ashton, the current High Representative for Foreign Affairs will leave. David Cameron will have to appoint a Euro-compatible successor, which is not an easy task. Two names are circulating: Andrew Lanley, a former Health Minister, and former Conservative Party coordinator in the House of Commons, Andrew Mitchell.

Ireland: Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, Commissioner of Research and Innovation could be replaced by Phil Hogan, current environment minister.

Cyprus: Androulla Vassiliou, Commissioner for Education, Youth and Multilingualism could be replaced by Christos Stylianides, who is a current government spokesman.

Luxembourg: it is yet unclear who will step in for Viviane Reding, current Justice Commissioner since Jean-Claude Juncker is running for President of the European Commission. It is also unclear whether Reding will stay in the case that Juncker is elected for President.

Germany: a similar story applied to Germany since Martin Schulz is running for President of the Commission on behalf of the S&D faction. The outcome of the elections of the European Parliamentary elections therefore have a big say on the future of current Energy Commissioner, Günther Oettinger.

Poland: Budget Commissioner Janusz Lewandowski could be replaced by the current foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, who has made no secret of his intentions to go European when the opportunity arises.

Finland: Olli Rehn, the current Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, could well be replaced by Alexander Stubb, the current Finnish minister for EU affairs and external trade.

Denmark: Connie Hedegaard, Commissioner for Climate Action will not stay at the Commission. Initial favorite was current Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. But since she has come under fire over domestic issues, this succession could be under threat.